PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
With the energy complex down 20% from this year’s highs it is worth looking at the next long-term downside targets that are expected to be hit in the not so distant future. Basically, they are the 34-month moving averages and the 38.2% correction points of the uptrend we experienced from the end of 2008 to 2011-2012.
WTI: this is already below the 34-month M/A (88.54) and is also below the 38.2% c/p of the rally from 32.40 to 114.83 at 83.34. Next target monthly target is the 100-week M/A at 74.78 and the 50% c/p of the same uptrend at 73.61.
Brent: 34-month M/A is at 96.82, 38.2% c/p of the rally from 36.20 to 128.40 is at 93.18.
Heat: 34-month M/A is at 257.49, 38.2% c/p of the rally from 112.52 to 333.00 is at 248.78.
RBOB: 34-month M/A is at 252.51, 38.2% c/p of the rally from 78.50 to 348.00 is at 245.05.
Gasoil: 34-month M/A is at 810.75, 38.2% c/p of the rally from 351.50 to 1,064.50 is at 792.00
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