Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Weekly EIA stats commentary 24/01/2013

Published Thursday, January 24th, 2013

This week’s report from the EIA on US oil stocks was more or less in lime with the API statistics. If anything it was bullish because total commercial stocks fell by 2.6 million bbls, 5.1% above last year’s level and 3.8% above the 5-year average.

The crude number in itself is bearish as PADD3 increased 5.4 million bbls and PADD5 fell by 2.5 million bbls. The total build stood at 2.8 million bbls on the week and crude oil stocks are now 8.5% higher than a year ago and 6.7% above the 5-year average. The draw in PADD3 is surprising given that crude oil imports only dropped 0.3 mbpd but can be explained by the 5.6% fall in refinery utilization in the US Gulf Coast. We have seen the first drop in Cushing inventories (-0.47 million bbls) for the first time in 7 weeks.  Domestic crude oil production also declined, something we have not seen for 6 weeks.

The small build in distillate stocks and the respecable draw in gasoline inventories are close to the API figures. It seems that the 4.2% decline in nationwide refinery utilization had a bigger impact on gasoline. Stocks in this product are 2.7% higher than this time last year and 2.7% higher than the 5-year average. In distillates the historical comparison is more bullish as current stocks are 8.7% below last year’s level and 10.9% lower than the 5-year average. The US imported 2.16 mbpd of products but since exports exceeded imports once again the country was a net exporter of nearly 0.9 mbpd.

Total product demand rose 0.4% last week on a 4-week average basis  to 18.31 mbpd. Distillate demand  fell 8.2% to 3.29 mbpd and gasoline demand increased by 1.4% to 8.32 mbpd on the same basis.

Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.