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Weekly EIA stats on US Oil Inventories 10/05/2013

Published Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

If there was any surprise in the latest report from the EIA on US oil inventories it was more on the bearish side. Total commercial stocks registered their third consecutive weekly rise and they are 2.6% above last year’s level and 2.1% above the 5-year average.

The slight drop in crude oil stocks is supportive in itself as the consensus was for a small build. It is probably due to refiners increasing their runs by 1%. PADD3 is particularly bullish from this respect as refinery utilization jumped to 92.5% from 88.9% from the week before. Crude oil inventories in the USGC fell 974.000 bbls despite crude oil imports remained broadly unchanged at  7,576 mbpd. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 575,000 bpd whilst domestic production fell to 7,321 mbpd, down 48,000 bpd on the week. Nationwide crude oil stocks are 3.5% lower than this time last year and 5% below the 5-year average.

The real bearish surprise came from the product side. Both distillates and gasoline showed unexpected increases. As a result of the gasoline build inventories on the US East Coast are 9.67 million bbls higher than a year ago and PADD3 distillate stocks jumped by a hefty 3.35 million bbls. Again, increased refinery utilization is responsible for the builds. These increases in product stocks came despite net product exports rose from 239,000 bpd to 910,000 bpd last week. Gasoline stocks are 6.5% abovel last year’s level and 2.8% above the 5-year average. The same figures for distillates are +0.1% and -12.4%.

Of course, total product demand falling 600,000 bpd on the week and 500,000 bpd on the year is providing further ammunition for the bears. It stood at 18.52 mbpd last week.Gasoline demand dropped to 8.34 mbpd, down 100.000 bpd on the week and 600.000 bpd on the year. Distillate demand at 3.58 mbpd is 90,000 bpd below last week’s level and 70,000 bpd lower than this time last year.

Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.