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ICE is negative – NYMEX should also test supports

Published Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

April ICE: The next target was tested, shorts have taken profit and they are looking to sell short again. The signal for doing so will come if or when the 54.02 support is closed below. This is the 38.2% retracement level of the August 2009-March 2013 uptrend. What they actually might want to do is put on part of the short positions on an intra-day break below 53.43 and go fully short if 54.02 is settled below. The former is another long-term correction point. If you take the highest ever print of 117.00 in November 2011 and low of August 2008 at 18.20 you’ll find that the 38.2% c/p of this move down is at 53.43. By any means short positions should be covered when the monthly low from July 2012 at 53.00 is approached or cut losses if 54.02 were closed above in coming days. Under the latter scenario a rally to the sellable 8-day M/A should take place.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.