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A crucial meeting with only one outcome

Published Thursday, April 17th, 2014

Today’s meeting at the UN in Geneva between the foreign ministers of the EU, US, Russia and the Ukraine is very important, but it appears to be a foregone conclusion. Russia will deny that it is responsible for the unrest in eastern Ukraine, claim the right to protect its citizens, demand that Kiev deals with the unrest in a peaceful manner and call for greater regional autonomy in the Ukraine.

The meeting will end without any agreement and the phony war will continue but we will be a step nearer to a real war. We will also be nearer to tougher sanctions on Russia which will expose deep divisions within the European Union. Events looks set to turn a lot nastier after Easter. A period of reflection could well lead investors to the conclusion that the old adage of selling in May and going away needs to be advanced.

Stock markets had a reasonable day but may have ended lower had results from Google and IBM been released before the close. Both stocks were down 4% in after-hours trading. Despite a huge crude build on the weekly EIA stock figures and confirmation from the Libyan oil minister that production is only running at 200,000bpd, with no certainty on when production would move higher, crude prices moved sideways.

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Posted by David Hufton