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The “ultimate goal” remains elusive

Published Thursday, May 15th, 2014

For the big board markets the focus is on interest rate expectations and the fact that equities remain so strong reflects the market view that central banks are extremely reluctant to raise rates. There is in fact a firm central bank bias in favour of keeping interest rates low even if the evidence would in more “normal” times point to raising them sooner rather than later.

Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve do not seem at all convinced that the recovery taking place is sustainable. Even a very arrogant ECB is having doubts. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, yesterday drew a comparison with the forthcoming World Cup saying that “securing the recovery is like making it through the qualifying rounds of the World Cup. That is an achievement but not the ultimate goal. The real tournament is just beginning and its prize is strong, sustained and balanced expansion.”

In a BBC interview this morning a member of the BoE rate setting committee was asked what odds he put on the UK economy securing the “ultimate goal”. His response was that the odds on England winning the World Cup are currently 30 to 1, and he put the chances of the UK securing sustainable growth at better than that. That is not a man speaking with a great deal of confidence.

to read the rest of the report, please click here 

Posted by David Hufton