Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Hit and held key supports – Wait for developments

Published Wednesday, June 4th, 2014

The contracts are below all the short term MAs and the stochastics are negative. The text book, in these conditions, says lower. However, I am not so sure. There are no valid targets south at the moment – most contracts have hit key support levels, indicating in some cases a completed price cycle, and held. These supports are at 102.06/101.94 (c/p and 34 day) WTI; 108.32 (100 day) Brent; 285.95 (range) Heat; 293.51 (50% c/p) RBOB; and 885.00 (range) Gasoil. There are no objectives below the market whilst these hold. The key to any potential turnaround of direction is two-fold – firstly what happens to RBOB at the c/p at 295.43 and what occurs on rallies to the 5 day MAs. A m/c over the 5s would indicate more recovery. Equally a m/c on RBOB below 293.51 would be a generally bearish signal. WTI has held the good support at 102.06/101.94. There are no targets lower whilst this holds. The key is now what happens at the 5 day MA around 102.84.

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Posted by Robin Bieber