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Vulnerable – Watch RBOB’s 13 day around 306.71

Published Monday, June 30th, 2014

The contracts look in trouble. All, bar RBOB, closed below the critical 13 day MAs on Friday. This is not good and green lights tentative targets south to 104.30 WTI; 112.42 Brent; 299.25 Aug’ Heat; and 916.50 Gasoil. The reason to be slightly wary of a these targets is that RBOB has yet to move and close (m/c) below its 13 day MA around 306.71. This is the most important pivotal support on the board today. The absence of a m/c below this MA points to a lack of harmony and therefore the direction of the next leg, on all contracts, although likely to be down, is not quite confirmed. A m/c below 306.71 would confirm the change of trend from a struggling up to a down, and make shorts a lot safer. A close below RBOB’s 13 day would be the final nail in the coffin for the recent up-trend. Meanwhile the stochastics are negative and this will make any rally hard work. WTI has a target to 104.30. This would look a lot safer if it could close below 105.22 and RBOB below its 13 day. Support after 104.30 is at 103.61, the other 34. Resistance is around 105.91 (5 day) then the co-located 8 and 13 around 106.02/08, a sale. Brent has a target to 112.42, which would look a lot safer on a move below 113.02 (and RBOB failing at 306.71).

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Posted by Robin Bieber