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ICE has hit its next target – NYMEX is hesitant

Published Wednesday, July 2nd, 2014

August ICE: Another day and another test of support. After the contract closed below 39.75 on Monday it duly went lower and fell to the recent continuation low of 38.55 with a low of 38.47 before settling slightly above this crucial area. Bears are flat again and they would probably only sell short if the 38.55/47 level were settled below. If this happens then the next downside objective, the 200-month M/A at 36.44, will be validated. This, however, might not happen today. The 38.55/47 support is strong. What happened yesterday was that the market tested its lowest continuation print of the last four years, very briefly broke below that but was not able to settle lower. It is therefore not surprising to see an upside correction. This might take the price of the contract up to the 8-day M/A that is currently at 4.476. It is NOT recommended to sell again if this resistance is tested. However, it is advised to sell short if the 8-day M/A is tested on an-intra-day basis and is NOT closed above.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.