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ICE is still negative – Be careful on NYMEX now

Published Tuesday, July 1st, 2014

August ICE: Not only was the 39.75 range support was tested but it was also closed below. It gave shorts the opportunity to take profit during the course of the day and go short again at the close. Yesterday’s settlement green-lighted the next downside objective – the continuation low on June 9 at 38.55. Profit on fresh short positions should be taken when this level tested. On the upside losses should be cut if 39.75 is settled over. In this case a test of the 8-day M/A at around 40.62 will be expected. Such a rally is a sell and these shorts are only recommended to protect the positions if the 13-day M/A, currently at 41.55 is closed above. Since yesterday was the last trading day of the month and the first half of the year below we shall take a longer term view on the contract. Since December last year the contract has lost value every single month. Yesterday the 61.8% c/p of the 5-year uptrend at 40.35 was closed below.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.