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ICE keeps falling – Watch the 200-day M/A on NYMEX

Published Monday, July 7th, 2014

August ICE: There is nothing that can stop this contract from going lower. The 200-month M/A was tested on Friday but was not closed below. It is currently at 36.42. It has, however, been broken below, actually well below this morning. As long as this is the case the next downside objective that was green-lighted by this morning’s weakness remains valid. It is 33.45, the monthly low in February 2009. Those who went short during the morning weakness are recommended to take profit there. In case the contract turns these shorts should protect their positions on a close back over the 36.42 resistance. On a close above this level a test of the 5-day M/A at around 37.34 is expected with the potential to go as high as the 8-day currently at 38.40. An eventual rally to the latter is a sell. Profit then should be taken on a fresh test of the 200-month M/A or cut losses if the 13-day M/A, which is presently at 39.57 were settled above.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.