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Next year looks a touch softer than 2014

Published Monday, July 14th, 2014

The IEA was the last of the major energy agencies to publish its monthly estimates on global oil supply/demand. The following sentence gives a good indication of their outlook: “(oil) prices remain historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet”. They are probably relatively bullish for the foreseeable future because the second half of this year looks tight and also “supply risk from the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high”.

Similarly to OPEC they see a tight second half of the year as their call on OPEC crude jumps by 1.4 mbpd to 30.6 mbpd from 1H 2014. For next year they expect the “global economy to gain momentum” which is reflected in the 1.4 mbpd global oil demand growth. Although non-OPEC supply growth is set to be lagging somewhat behind (+1.2 mbpd) the demand for OPEC’s crude oil is expected to fall by 100,000 bpd to 29.8 mbpd in 2015 from 2014.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.