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The technical picture is mixed but still more positive

Published Friday, July 25th, 2014

Yesterday’s optimistic headline proved to be unjustified as the complex settled lower after a half-hearted test of resistances. This weakness turned WTI and Brent back to neutral. Heating Oil and Gasoil are still on the positive side whilst RBOB is negative. There is still a chance to recover from here but another weak performance today would be bearish for the whole complex next week. The above-mentioned chance comes in the form of closes above the daily short-term M/As on Heat and Gasoil and above strong range supports on WTI and Brent. Starting with the NYMEX crude contract it has bottomed out between 101.79 and 101.91 during the last three weeks and has its 13-day M/A at 101.67. Whilst this is the case the odds are on stronger numbers and on another test of the 103.31/38 resistance area, a range and the 34-day M/A. A close below the 101.91/67 support, on the other hand, is bearish. Although Brent is below all of its short-term M/As it has a massive range resistance at 106.94/75. These are the daily lows of the last 7 sessions and it is made even stronger by the 200-day M/A at 106.85.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.