Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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A wobble or a warning?

Published Friday, August 1st, 2014

Russia sanctions may be the tipping point for the Eurozone economy sending it into deflation but it may also be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back of confidence for US stock market investors. There were signs that this may be the case yesterday with a 1.8% fall in the Dow and 2% fall in the S&P 500.

Today’s non-farm payroll data will assume even greater importance coming at such a delicate moment. The problem is that we do not know how the market will respond to either a better or worse than expected number of 230,000. The uncertainty comes because we cannot be sure why the market re-traced yesterday.

Was it simply data driven triggered by an unexpectedly awful ISM reading for the Mid-West (Chicago); was it sanctions driven as the negative impact on Europe and export markets in general hits home; was it driven by Argentina’s ‘technical’ default which casts doubt on other subprime debt; or was it because the 4% 2Q GDP growth figures, positive comments on the economy from the Federal Reserve and the biggest jump in labour costs for over five years suggest that an interest rate increase looms sooner than previously thought?

to read the rest of the report, please click here 

Posted by David Hufton