PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
The weakness continued yesterday but maybe it is time for the bears to be careful, at least for today. The reason to say this is twofold. Firstly, apart from WTI, the rest has held important support levels. Secondly, and this is not strictly a technical approach, today is Friday and given the current geopolitical climate it could be risky to go home with short positions on. Anyway, WTI broke and closed below the 98.68 range support. It now has a valid downside objective in the form of the 96.43 range support, the daily low on May 5. This will remain a valid target unless the aforementioned 98.68 range is closed back over, in which case the 5 and 200-day M/As are expected to be tested early next week. They are at 99.82 and 99.86 respectively. Brent had a go at the 105.59 and at the 105.26/16 support levels. The former was even briefly broken but none of them were closed below. We shall have to see a close below the lower of them to turn unreservedly bearish. In the absence of such a move it is not unreasonable to expect a rally up to the 106.75/94 range, 200-day M/A and 5-day M/A resistance area. As for the products they all did their best to break and close below their relevant support levels and they all failed in doing so.
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