Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Technical alert!

Published Wednesday, August 20th, 2014

Brent moved a little bit closer to the cliff edge yesterday making a low of $101.07/bbl before clawing its way back to a close of $101.56/bbl (-4). Technicians are on high alert. We are warned that if Brent cannot hold at current levels the next technical staging post is $99.67/bbl.

There is however a spoiler in the form of RBOB which not only held key support at 266.07 but rallied to close above its 5-day moving average. The RBOB rally was triggered by two refinery incidents. The first on Monday evening was the unplanned shutdown of a 70,000bpd cat cracker at Shell’s Deer Park Texas refinery. The second was a power outage at PBF Energy’s Delaware refinery which shut a reformer and cat cracker.

The fact that two strokes of luck came in to support gasoline is irrelevant to technicians. It is the number that counts and we are being reliably informed that it will be very difficult for Brent to break below $100/bbl unless RBOB resumes its downtrend and pushes through 266.07cts/gal.

to read the rest of the report, please click here 

Posted by David Hufton