Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the MAs – They hold all the clues to the next leg

Published Thursday, August 28th, 2014

The down trend may well be over, at least for the time being, but the next leg higher is by no means assured. The short term (s/t) MAs and the 34 day MAs will determine the next leg. So far WTI, Brent and Gasoil have been thwarted by the 13 day MAs on attempts to move higher. These contracts have completed a slingshot (s/s) move higher from the 5 and 8s to the 13s, but have not yet closed over the 13. Such closes would give us targets higher. (Gasoil has moved over the 13 this morning). RBOB and Heat are similar but are above the 13s and having trouble at the 34s – they have completed a s/s move higher at the 34s. We now need moves and closes (m/c) over the 13 or 34s for the next leg higher to be valid. Similarly the downside key lies with the 5 and 8s – they must hold or we re-visit the lows. It’s a MA day today – they hold the clues for both directions – watch them very carefully, and sit on one’s hands until the next leg is clear. WTI is struggling to hold the 5 and 8s around 93.65/58 – these must hold or it fails and heads lower to 92.50 again. At the same time there are no targets higher until it can close over the 13 day MA around 94.23.

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Posted by Robin Bieber