PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
The market is in one of the most confusing technical conditions that I can remember for a long time. It is advised to keep exposure limited. The crudes and Gasoil are clinging on and, at the moment, are holding key support, although WTI and Gasoil closed below this critical support at 91.24 and 815.50 last night, but have recovered overnight. Heat hit its target lower to 268.01 and now needs a move confirmed by close (m/c) below here to acquire a further objective lower. RBOB has a target higher to 263.47/74. The stochastics are positive on Brent and RBOB but negative on the rest. The technical picture is by no means harmonious and should be treated with the utmost care. WTI has clawed its way back over the key pivot at 91.24. Another m/c below here would green light the next leg lower to 89.56. Meanwhile 91.24 is initial and key support. Resistance is around 91.85/89 (5 day and range), a sale, then 91.96/92.02 (13 and 8 day), also a sale. Shorts need only be protected on a m/c over 92.02. Brent has held the very important 96.75 level – long term low of April 2013.
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