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Key MAs must hold on WTI and RBOB – Watch for this; A bit vulnerably generally

Published Thursday, September 18th, 2014

The contracts are struggling, or to be more precise Brent, Heat, and Gasoil are looking a bit vulnerable as they have slipped below their short-term (s/t) MAs. WTI and RBOB remain above the s/t MAs and it is very important that they maintain levels above the highest MA around 93.64 WTI (5) and 255.73 RBOB (13). If they slide below here and then close below then the writing would be on the wall for a general re-rest of the recent lows. It is relevant that WTI completed a price cycle by rallying over the s/t MAs to the 34 and failing. Brent, Heat and Gasoil have moved from the 5 to 8 and failed, which is the completion of a slingshot move and has by no means removed the down trend from the picture. This is why it is so important that RBOB holds over 255.73/61 level – the 13 day and pivotal range. WTI looks ok at the moment, but is lacking upside momentum when confronted with the 34 day MA at 94.53. It has completed a price cycle and short covering move by hitting the 34 and now needs a m/c over here and the continuation 34 at 95.05 to acquire a target higher. In the meantime it must stay over the initial s/t MA – the 5 – and range support around 93.72/64. The next MA is around 93.41 (13) then 93.18 (8). A move and close (m/c) below the 8 would be negative, but upside potential is only maintained on a m/c over 93.72/64 – i.e. the 5 must hold.

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Posted by Robin Bieber