PVM Midday Report 13 June 2016
Headlines
OPEC hints at tighter oil balance in 2H 2016; output down 100,000 bpd in May
Chinese implied oil demand falls by 380,000 bpd in May y/y to 10.24 mbpd
Iran’s biggest oil…
Last week was one not merely of events but of developments with enormous potential significance if they turn out to be more than a flash in the pan. The Supreme Leader has agreed to “contacts” with the US in combating the Islamic State which follows a recent and unprecedented visit of the Iranian foreign minister to Saudi Arabia. A common enemy is forcing new alliances. A new and inclusive Iraqi government is close to formation and a ceasefire has been agreed in Ukraine which could be read as Russia blinking or more likely Ukraine conceding.
Perhaps of more significance, President Putin has solidified and re-galvanised Nato, sent Europe on a mission to achieve energy independence from Russia and provoked the EU into preparing sanctions on state owned Russian oil companies. The ECB has finally bitten the bullet on QE, albeit a light version which together with Scottish Independence moving a step closer has sent currency markets into a frenzy. France could be heading for a Presidential resignation with huge implications for eurozone solidarity. President Hollande has a 13% approval rating against an 85% rating for President Putin!
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