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ICE is turning bearish again –NYMEX has hit its upside target

Published Friday, January 16th, 2015

The NYMEX contract somewhat lived up to its bullish expectations whilst ICE disappointed its faithful bulls. It is recommended to be flat in the former and also flat if not slightly short in the latter. The price actions on the contracts are expected to be erratic and volatile so quick action might be required to open and/or close positions.


February ICE: The 13 and 5-day M/As were settled below yesterday and the 8-day M/A, although held by the close, has been broken below this morning. One week of upward move came to nothing as the contract lost nearly 3% on the day. Under these circumstances it is only logical to get rid of long positions that were initiated by the positive performance on Wednesday. Since all the daily short-term M/As are currently above the price action the brave ones might even contemplate selling short on an intra-day basis and go fully short on the close provided that the long-term c/p at 47.18 and the lowest of the daily M/As, the 8-day at around 47.07 is settled below. In that case the former downside target, the continuation high on June 16 at 45.55 will be green-lighted.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.