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Watch the 5 and 8s and on weakness the b/b pivots. Test of the 8s v poss

Published Friday, January 9th, 2015

The trend remains down, but the contracts are not only holding but trying to recover some too.  New lows were not made yesterday and targets lower are no hold for the moment. The contracts are all now testing their 5 day MAs – the most aggressive trend following MA and one that in normal conditions rarely keeps the market in check for long. Almost uniquely the 5 day MA has held in this move lower for most of its duration – upwards of 6 months – and is testimony to the relentlessness and ferocity of the move lower. WTI has moved over its 5 this morning but the rest have it as key initial resistance around (48.93 WTI); 51.52 Brent; 172.14 Heat; 135.27 RBOB and 485.00 Gasoil. Watch these levels carefully. If they are breached then we’re in for a slingshot (s/s) move higher to the 8s around 50.59 WTI; 53.65 Brent; 175.98 Heat; 139.25 RBOB; and 498.00 Gasoil. The 8s are a sell. However, a failure at the 5s and a move and close (m/c) below the b/b pivots (“c”) would re-activate targets lower to 45.95 WTI; 47.99 Brent; 163.62 Heat; 117.83 RBOB; and 451.50 Gasoil. WTI has just breached its 5 day round 48.93 and if this holds should head s/s fashion for the 8 around 50.59, a sale. It needs a m/c below the b/b pivot at 48.69 to re-activate the target to 45.95.

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Posted by Robin Bieber