Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Watch the s/t MAs, and specifically RBOB at its 13

Published Monday, January 19th, 2015

The market has been in a down trend for six months or so.  On only very few occasions since June have the 13 day MAs been breached – hardly ever on Brent and a few more times on WTI and RBOB. When RBOB has breached the 13 we have usually witnessed a more sustained rally that has then failed and the down trend resume. We are at such a stage. The contracts are going to be dominated by the short term MAs today, and specifically whether RBOB can stay over the 13 around 135.02 today – watch it carefully. This is the most important level on the board today. WTI and Gasoil are over the 5 and 8s and threatening the 13 around 49.24 and 485.75. Brent and Heat are over the 5s, testing the 8s, and below the 13. If WTI and RBOB can move and stay over the 13s then the odds are that we’re in for more of a rally. WTI, Brent and Heat all held the long term up-trend line on Friday. The view has not changed – targets lower are on hold. All shorts should have been covered now and should only re-enter the market on moves confirmed by closes (m/c) below the s/t MAs. Watch RBOB and WTI very carefully today. Feb’ WTI held the long term support line at 45.95 and moved higher to close over the 5 and 8s and just below the 13. Mar’ WTI, which we are now looking at, did the same. It is above the 8 around 48.17 and the 5 around 48.06. Only a m/c below the 5 would point to renewed weakness. The key now is the action at the 13 day around 49.24.

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Posted by Robin Bieber