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A union of compromise rather than resolution

Published Monday, February 16th, 2015

This time last week the war in Ukraine and a Greek exit from the eurozone were top of the list of threats to global geopolitical and financial stability. They still are, although progress has been made on both. An unstable ceasefire has been reached on Ukraine and the seeds of a compromise are emerging on Greece, but neither problem is close to resolution.

However,  the possibility of all-out war over Ukraine and Grexit have been deferred and investors in a ‘glass half full’ mood greeted the developments by taking US stock markets to record highs, eurozone stocks to seven year highs and the FTSE 100 to a whisker below its all-time high. Germany delivered a much better than expected 4Q GDP growth number and the eurozone as a whole turned in +0.3% and +0.9% for the year. With expectations so low the figures were seen as very encouraging with the full benefits of a weak euro led export boost, low oil prices and QE all still to come.

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Posted by David Hufton