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ICE is changing direction – NYMEX looks healthy

Published Monday, February 16th, 2015

March ICE: It was said in Friday’s report that longs should start cutting back on their positions on a break and close below 53.91, the 61.8% correction point of the November-January downtrend. It was also recommended to reduce these positions further on a break below the 100-day contract M/A and go completely flat if closed below. The first scenario did take place, the second one did not therefore bulls probably got rid of half of their positions. This morning further selling is pushing the price of the contract lower. It is well below the aforementioned 100-day M/A (52.87) and is also below the 100-day continuation (52.25) and the 5-day (52.20). It is best to be conservative and go flat and wait for developments. Should the 100- contract M/A be settled above it would make sense to re-establish long positions as in that case we should see a jump up to the 53.91 c/p and possibly to Thursday’s high of 55.58. On the other hand, a close below the 5-day would mean that the 8 and 13-day M/A supports will be visited. They are currently at 50.51 and 48.83.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.