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ICE is still positive but NYMEX has turned bearish

Published Friday, February 27th, 2015

April ICE: The early morning enthusiasm evaporated late in the day and the contract closed well off the high of 52.00. This means that it did not settled over the 100-day continuation M/A that is at 51.90 this morning. It also means that there was no upside break-out therefore there was no fresh buy signal. On the other hand, buyable supports were not tested either. It is recommended to be flat and wait for developments. This morning the contract drifted below the 100-day contract M/A that is currently at 50.48. This could indicate that further softness is in order. If true and if the 13-day M/A that is around 49.45 is tested it might be an idea to start acquiring length, especially if it holds by the close. In this case the positions should be protected on a break and close below the 8-day M/A (48.95) or profit taken at the 100-day (50.48). On the upside a break over the 100-day continuation is a quick intra-day buy for a jump to the 52.54 range resistance and a close over the latter is also a buy. Under this scenario we should not be surprised to see further strength, possibly up to the 200-day contract M/A at around 53.76.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.