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ICE seems negative whilst NYMEX is undecided

Published Thursday, February 19th, 2015

March ICE: This contract closed lower yesterday. It settled below the 8-day M/A support giving us a sell signal. This morning it has headed straight to the 13-day M/A support at 49.77 so shorts were able to take profit. Whilst this profit was not huge, add in yesterday’s profit-taking at the 8-day after the 5-day had been closed below and it is quite decent. It would be tempting to say that a close below the 13-day is a sell but the fact is that the 50% correction point of the January-February rally is too close to this support for comfort. It is at 49.47 and only a close below is deemed to be a sell. Should this happen we are probably off to the 61.8% c/p of the same move at 48.03. On the upside it is not advised to go long unless the highest of the daily short-term M/As, the 8-day at around 51.52, is settled over. In that case the 100-day M/As at 52.23 and 52.60 will be targeted.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.