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PVM Midday Report 05 February 2015

Published Thursday, February 5th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Tax change set to boost Russian crude exports by 5 million tonnes this year
  2. Russia’s Energy Minister puts current oil supply/demand imbalance at 1.5-2 mbpd
  3. Iranian exports of condensates rise by 42% y/y to $12.1 billion in 10 months to Jan 21
  4. European Commission’s 2015 and 2016 growth forecasts revised up to 1.3% and 1.9%
  5. December German factory orders beat expectations at +4.2% m/m

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Russian energy officials expect its crude oil exports to rise by five million tonnes this year as a result of favourable tax changes which will lead to a reduction in oil export duties. Moreover, they have claimed that the current global oil demand/supply imbalance stands at between 1.5-2 million bpd. Looser controls over the sale of Iranian condensate have helped its exports of ultra-light oil rise to over $12.1 billion in the 10 months to January 21, a 42% increase from the same period a year ago.

Technicals: The oil contracts are rebounding from yesterday’s fierce sell-off and upside objectives have been revalidated. These are 50.26 WTI (34-day MA); 56.29 Brent; 180.05 Heat; 152.36 RBOB (5-day MA); 543.25 Gasoil. Brent, Heat and Gasoil are above all their daily short-term MA and look encouraging but RBOB and WTI will need a close above their 5 and 34 day MAs respectively for further gains tomorrow.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.