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Very vulnerable. Bulls losing control, bears in ascendency. Lower likely

Published Thursday, February 12th, 2015

The market is in trouble, but big moves take time to develop. It displayed its vulnerability yesterday. The contracts are faltering but they have by no means given the signal for targets lower and re-visiting the recent lows, which is on the bears’ agenda.  It is a very realistic, even likely outlook, but we need some poor closes to make this more than just a likelihood. The ursine flood gates would be wide open on moves confirmed by closes below the 13 day MAs (held yesterday on WTI and Brent) and the 50% c/ps of the recent run up. They are close to each other below the market at the moment. In the meantime the 55 day MAs are lurking threateningly above current levels on all but Mar’ Gasoil, which has dipped below but is now above the 55. There is absolutely no upside whilst the majority of the contracts are below the key 55s. Watch them they are at 54.75 WTI (miles away); 59.05 Apr’ Brent; 184.47 Heat; 156.05 RBOB: and 543.75 Mar’ Gasoil. WTI, Brent and RBOB are all below the 5 and 8 day MAs – this is gently negative and suggests a lack of upside momentum. The stochastics are high and negative, which is not positive.

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Posted by Robin Bieber