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PVM Midday Report 09 March 2015

Published Monday, March 9th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Chinese crude oil imports slip by 8.7% in February from January to 25.55 million tonnes
  2. Iraqi Kirkuk loadings reach 400,000 bpd for the first time since Baghdad oil deal struck
  3. Two tankers load a combined 1.6 million bbls at Libya’s Hariga oil port
  4. Speculators increase net length in ICE Brent crude by 9,578 lots in week to March 3

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Chinese crude oil imports posted a larger-than-expected 8.7% m/m fall in Feb to 25.55 million tonnes. The eastern Libyan oil company has revealed that crude output from the region stands at around 245,000 bpd while also confirming that two tankers have loaded cargoes at the Hariga oil terminal. Oil production from the Kurdistan region continues to grow with loadings of Iraqi Kirkuk crude said to have reached 400,000 bpd for the first time since an oil export deal was struck with Baghdad.

Technicals: The contracts are below all the short term (s/t) MA and with the exception of WTI all have negative stochastics. These are not the ingredients of a bull market, but they sit comfortable in a market testing the bottom end of a range. The next leg is not clear and it is worth being patient. WTI is testing on its continuation 34 day MA at 49.42 and only acquires a target lower on a move and close (m/c) below here. Brent has an objective to its 34 day at 57.36 valid whilst below 60.08. Heat needs is just below the 34 day 186.40 and to have an objective to 182.58 needs to m/c below 185.92 – this has held so far. RBOB is holding 185.55 and needs a m/c below here to green light a leg down to 177.92.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.