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PVM Midday Report 24 March 2015

Published Tuesday, March 24th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Libyan crude output steady at around 490,000 bpd; 1/3 of pre-2011 levels
  2. Tripoli-based NOC says working independently from both governments
  3. Eurozone Flash Composite PMI for March hits three-year high of 54.1
  4. UK February inflation misses expectations of +0.1% to hit zero
  5. US inflation rebounds +0.2% y/y in February after slipping by 0.1% in January

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Libya’s state-owed National Oil Company has reiterated that it is functioning independently from both the internationally recognised government based in Benghazi and the rival Tripoli-based one. Staying with the OPEC member, an industry source has put Libyan crude output at around 490,000 bpd which represents a third of the levels before the 2011 revolt. Meanwhile, official reports have revealed that Chinese commercial crude stocks dipped by 2% at the end of February from the previous month.

Technicals: RBOB has given the early warning signal by moving over the 13 day MA around 180.21 and has headed straight for, but not quite hit, the 34 day at 183.08 – the next target. The rest have gained confidence and are in resistance testing mode. WTI has hit and failed, so far, at the 13 day MA around 48.05. It needs to move and close (m/c) over here to have targets higher. Brent is below the 13 day and c/p around 56.27/30. It needs to m/c over here to acquire a target higher to 58.04.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.