Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Still in a downtrend. Watch RBOB carefully and the rest at the 5 and 8s

Published Monday, March 23rd, 2015

I said on Thursday that the market lacked harmony. Had I been in on Friday I would have said the same thing. The key technical indicators are not singing from the same hymn sheet. The stochastics are positive, but the short term MAs are still a (negative) issue. The contracts are still battling with the 5 and 8s – WTI and Brent are at the 5s but below the 8s; Heat is below them all; Gasoil and RBOB are above the 5 and 8s; and all are below the 13s. This is not harmonious with the stochastics and until the price action is clearer around the 5 and 8s it’s advised to adopt a neutral profile and wait and see. Do not get sucked in on rallies. Watch the 5 and 8s and also observe RBOB carefully for early warning signals. WTI is at or just below the 5 day around 45.96 and has the 8 as resistance around 46.52. Watch these two. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) below 45.96 would make a re-test of 44.38, a c/p, very likely. However, a m/c over the 8, around 46.52 – unlikely – would indicate a further rally to the 13 around 48.30.

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Posted by Robin Bieber