Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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The contracts are getting confusing

Published Monday, March 9th, 2015

We concluded in Friday’s report that the ICE contract is bearish (very bearish) whilst NYMEX Natgas had turned bullish. Although Friday’s performance did nothing to alter this view one might have second thoughts about the technical state of the contracts based on this morning’s price action. As closing prices are considered the most important ones from the technical perspective, NYMEX is still positive and ICE negative but if this morning’s trends prevail over the course of the day the flavour of tomorrow’s report could easily be very different.

April ICE: This contract could not get down to its nearest downside objective. It is the 44.15/00 range support area, the daily lows on the April contract and the continuation basis from the end of January. On an eventual dip down there it is highly advised to cover short positions. Bears should then sell short again if 43.75 were settled below, the continuation high on July 29 last year. This morning the contract is picking up but the sell-off from last Thursday and Friday was so fierce that the closest important resistance area is some way above the current price level.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.