Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Both contracts are still in their ranges

Published Thursday, April 9th, 2015

There was no significant change in the technical status of either contract yesterday. They still seem to be undecided although it appears that ICE will want to test the upper end of this possibly short-term range whilst NYMEX, although currently slightly up from last night’s settlement, could test the bottom end.


May ICE: After testing and holding the 13-day M/A support the contract is edging higher without any significant enthusiasm. Nevertheless it seems that the 100-day M/A resistance, the top end of the current range, is going to be tested in the near future. It is at 47.03. Those who have been playing the range and went long on the test of the 13-day M/A are advised to take profit when the 100-day M/A is in sight and re-instate those long positions if closed above. In this case we can expect further strength, possibly up to 49.45, which is the daily high on the May contract on February 26. So, the contract is neutral with some upside potential. It will only turn bearish on a close below the 13-day M/A at around 45.84. Such a move would be a sell and it would validate the nearest downside objective, the 43.52 range support which is the daily low on March 23. Go long on a close over the 100-day M/A and short below the 13-day M/A.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.