Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Classic up-trend action, but be careful up here. Watch RBOB’s 5 day MA.

Published Thursday, April 30th, 2015

The market action yesterday was text book up-trend – a slingshot (s/s) dip below the 5 to the 8 day MAs, which held, then the contracts ran up again and closed over the 5s. I must admit that I had thought that the 8s would come under more pressure and that it was very likely that we’d dip below. This didn’t occur and the rest is history. The trend is up – the move lower from the 5 to the 8s and then back over the 5s again suggests higher numbers and this may well yet happen. However, more work is needed, particularly on the crudes, and the stochastics are negative on all but WTI. This is not harmonious, but the market can go up on negative stochastics but it’s unusual. Use June RBOB’s 5 day MA, around 200.29, as the clue and guide. This level needs to hold to maintain the momentum, and a failure to do so would be the early warning signal for a dip back to test further supports and the 8 day MAs again. WTI did well, but now needs a move confirmed by a close (m/c) over 58.87 to green light a leg higher to 61.01 (200 month MA). It is important that it stays above the 5 day around 57.66 or it dips back again to the 8 around 57.28.

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Posted by Robin Bieber