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Possible trend reversal on NYMEX – Nothing to do on ICE

Published Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Both of the contracts settled higher yesterday. The strength was much more impressive on NYMEX than on ICE as the former closed above all of its daily short-term M/As giving us a buy signal. The latter failed to settle below significant support level but did not bother resistances either therefore the name of the game on this contract is to wait-and-see.


June ICE: To re-iterate yesterday’s view it is not recommended to go long. The market is still more on the bearish side therefore going short is advised in one of two cases. The first one is a close below the 42.10/06 range support. These are the daily lows on the June contract on March 6 and April 24. Such a move will green-light the next daily low and range support at 40.49 as the nearest objective on the downside and would keep the bears firmly behind the steering wheel. The second one is a rally to but a failure to close above the 13-day M/A resistance that is currently at 42.92. In that case profit ought to be taken at the 42.10/06 area or losses are to be cut on a close above the 13-day M/A as in that case the contract will turn from bearish to bullish. Such a move will encourage bulls to emerge. At the moment the chances are on supports coming under further pressure and on the eventual close below the 42.10/06 range support.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.