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PVM Midday Report 02 April 2015

Published Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Headlines

  1. Russian oil production rises to post-Soviet high of 10.71 mbpd in March
  2. March Iraqi crude exports inch higher to fresh record of 2.98 mbpd
  3. Somali terrorists attack Kenya university leaving at least 14 dead
  4. Iranian talks drag on as representatives remain optimistic of a deal

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Iraqi oil exports reached a record high last month of 2.98 mbpd, an increase from 2.597 mbpd recorded in February, as output from the Kurdistan region accelerated. Russian oil production also inched higher to a new record in March to 10.71 mbpd from 10.65 mbpd in the previous month. Meanwhile, Iranian negotiations are dragging on with no agreement yet announced despite fresh claims of “significant progress” being made by the Iranian Foreign Minister.

Technicals: The oil contracts are losing value this morning and appear to be singing form the same hymn sheet. Brent is slumping below all its s/t MAs and will look vulnerable to further weakness on a close below 55.20 (range support). WTI is similarly struggling to hold its 5 and 8 day MA, a close below which would greenlight a target lower 47.05. Heat’s hitherto upside target at 179.25 had been put on hold as it breaches key support at 173.09 and is expected to lose more value. RBOB is also falling to hold its nearest support at its 8-day MA (181.56) and is testing its range resistance at 178.80 at the time of writing, a close below which would be considered bearish. Gasoil has joined the rest of the complex below important supports and must ensure a close above 519.50 to prevent further downside potential. The contracts are undergoing a retracement and as such it is not advised to be long.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.