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PVM Midday Report 09 April 2015

Published Thursday, April 9th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Iran’s Supreme Leader casts doubts over recently agreed nuclear framework
  2. Saudi oil official sees global oil demand growth increasing by 1 mbpd annually until 2025
  3. Iranian Oil Minister expects OPEC to accommodate rising oil exports
  4. German exports rebound 1.5% in February, industrial production climbs 0.2%
  5. Athens to make €450 million loan repayment to the IMF

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has expressed caution over the recently reached nuclear framework agreement stating that no deal would be better than a bad deal and that a gradual lifting of sanctions would not be acceptable. The need for a complete removal of sanctions as a prerequisite to a final deal was also echoed by the country’s President, Hassan Rouhani. With the anticipation of an easing of restrictions over its oil exports, Iran’s Oil Minister has signalled that OPEC will coordinate to accommodate increasing Iranian exports without causing a price fall. Meanwhile, an adviser to the Saudi Oil Minister has claimed that oil demand is forecast to grow by 1 mbpd annually, eventually reaching 105 mbpd in 2025.

Technicals: The expected test of supports has not materialised and the contracts have moved to the upside. Brent has climbed above its 5-day but needs a move and close over its 34-day at 57.82 to maintain the upward momentum. WTI has similarly tested its 5-day at 51.44 and a close above which would greenlight the 52.58 range resistance and would confirm the view that yesterday’s’ sell-off was a bear trap. Heating oil is no longer viewed as bearish as it moves over its short term MAs, a close over which is needed in order to have a realistic chance of testing its key upside target at 177.27 (34-day).

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.