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PVM Midday Report 14 April 2015

Published Tuesday, April 14th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Chinese March crude oil exports climb to highest since 2006 at 750,000 tonnes
  2. Pre-sanctions oil export volumes within few months of their removal – Iran Oil Minister
  3. Yemen LNG declares force majeure on plant
  4. Eurozone February industrial production rebounds by 1.1%
  5. UK annual inflation stagnates for second consecutive month in March

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: The deteriorating situation in Yemen has forced the company operating the country’s only LNG plant to declare a force majeure with all production and exporting activities ceasing immediately. Iran’s Oil Minister has revealed that it is capable of reaching pre-sanction levels of oil exports within a few months of their removal. Chinese crude exports in March tracked a rise in oil imports after climbing to their highest level since 2006 at 750,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll is forecasting US crude oil stocks to add to current record highs with a build of 3.7 million bbls.

Technicals: The contracts are tentatively adding value but an element of uncertainty remains. WTI, Brent and Heat are above their short and medium term MAs thereby greenlighting a move higher to the 100-day at 54.26, 60.87 and 182.61 but have so far made little headway. RBOB has tested its nearest upside target at 182.04 and only a close above it will have to complex moving higher. Gasoil is making little progress towards its significant resistance at 552.25. The bullish outlook will only be confirmed by a move and close over the aforementioned 100-day MAs. Look for RBOB to lead the contracts higher with a settlement above 182.04.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.