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PVM Midday Report 16 April 2015

Published Thursday, April 16th, 2015

Headlines

  1. OPEC raises expected 2015 call on its oil as a result of falling non-OPEC output
  2. Iraqi Oil Minister reveals crude exports should hit fresh high of 3.1 mbpd this month
  3. Aden refinery declares force majeure on worsening security situation in Yemen
  4. Reports of IMF snubbing Greek requests for loan repayment delay
  5. IAEA holds “constructive” talks with Iran, to meet again soon

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: OPEC has left its forecast of 2015 global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.17 mbpd in its latest monthly report while also increasing the estimated call on its crude by 80,000 bpd as lower prices take their toll on non-OPEC producers. Staying with the oil cartel, the Iraqi Oil Minister has signalled that crude exports are on course to hit a record high of 3.1 mbpd this month. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Aden refinery has closely followed the country’s only LNG plant into declaring a force majeure as a result of the worsening security situation.

Technicals: No great surprises so far this morning. The contracts are taking a break and now need to hold on to some of last night’s gains or the rally will be deemed a failure. WTI needs to hold 56.07 or it dips back some more and may begin to look a bit vulnerable. It’s some way above the 5 day MA around 53.81. Brent needs to stay over 63.00 or it, too, will be susceptible to a dip back. It is some way above the 5 day around 60.78. Heat is at the 100 day MA at 187.77 and the 5 month MA at 188.55. These are major hurdles and need to be treated with care. The 5 day is around 182.35. RBOB is above the 8 month MA at 187.40.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.