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PVM Midday Report 20 April 2015

Published Monday, April 20th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Speculators raise net length in ICE Brent to record high in week to April 14
  2. Saudi Arabia’s Al-Naimi reveals April crude output steady at around 10 mbpd
  3. Oil flows along Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline touch new 2015-high of 650,000 bpd
  4. Libya’s Hariga and Zueitina oil ports to load a combined 1.3 million bbls

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister has revealed that current oil output remains steady at just below a recent historic high at around 10 mbpd in a sign that it will continue to do its upmost to protect market share. Rising production is a similar theme in Libya were crude output is seen close to 600,000 bpd as two tankers prepare to load a combined 1.3 million bbls from the eastern ports of Hariga and Zueitina. Flows along the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline have climbed to yet another 2015-peak of 650,000 bpd, having risen to 500,000 bpd only last week. Meanwhile, financial speculators have increased their net length in ICE Brent by a hefty 29,649 lots to a record high of 263,578 contracts in the week ended April 14.

Technicals: The contracts are a bit vulnerable and are now in 5 day MA testing mode. These are around 56.97 June WTI; 62.65 Brent; 186.78 Heat; 190.98 RBOB; and 564.25 Gasoil. These need to hold or the market dips further – probably to the 8 day MAs. These are around 55.58 Jun WTI; 61.15 Brent; 182.68 Heat; 186.48 RBOB and 553.50 Gasoil. The stochastics are positive but wobbly. Look for the 5s to come under serious pressure later today.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.