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PVM Midday Report 30 April 2015

Published Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Headlines

  1. Survey puts April OPEC oil output at 31.04 mbpd, highest since 2012
  2. Kurdish crude exports via Turkey set to rise to 625,000 bpd in June
  3. Iranian oil exports to India surge 17% y/y in April to 264,000 bpd
  4. Eurozone inflation strengthens to zero in April from same period a year ago
  5. Spanish 1Q GDP growth accelerates to 0.9% from 0.7% in previous quarter

Oil                                                                                              

Fundamentals: A Reuters survey has showed that OPEC crude output reached 31.04 mbpd in April, the highest since 2012, with Saudi, Libya and Iraq all seen increasing production. Also contributing to the rise in the cartel’s output may have been a jump in Iranian crude exports to India during the same month with deliveries rising by 17% to 264,000 bpd from a year ago. Officials from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region have revealed that oil exports via Turkey should reach 625,000 by June. Meanwhile, a poll has forecast limited upside to oil prices with Brent and WTI seen averaging $60 & $54.40, respectively.

Technicals: The market followed through higher this morning but has since given up some ground. Some more work is required. WTI now needs to move and close (m/c) over 58.87 to green light a leg higher to 61.01 (200 month MA). Brent needs to m/c over 65.80 to activate an objective to 68.08. June Heat must m/c over 193.83 to have a target to 211.05. June RBOB is over the key 5 day MA around 200.78 and must stay this way to have an objective to 206.18, and also lend vicarious strength to the rest. Gasoil has an objective to 601.75 whilst over 591.00. The stochastics remain erratic, but the MAs are probably more important bullish indicators at the moment. The trend is up – stick with it.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.