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RBOB’s 8 month MA at 186.44 the key, plus the 100s on WTI, Brent and Heat

Published Wednesday, April 15th, 2015

The market is shaping up nicely. The price action is above all the short term (s/t) MAs. The daily stochastics are positive, albeit getting a little high. There’s the odd c/p to deal with like on June Brent at 60.30, Heat at 182.78; RBOB at 187.04 and Gasoil at 553.25, but these are not overly significant resistance. The key technical indicators are mostly positive and suggesting some upside. There are, however, one or two hurdles standing in the way that look like coming under upside pressure. The most important of which is RBOB around 186.44 – the 8 month MA. This MA has not been neared since July 2014 – at the beginning of the collapse – and now the price action has recovered over the 5 month, around 165.07 and techno-logic suggests that the 8 month is the next major hurdle. Watch this level carefully – it is the most important resistance on the board today. A move confirmed by a close over (m/c) would be positive and take the complex higher. At the same time WTI and Brent have their contract 100 day MAs to deal with at 54.31 WTI and 60.65 Brent. These are also key resistance numbers – watch them. Heat also has its 100 day at 182.74 – this also needs to be closed over. There is upside potential developing, but the key resistances – 8 month RBOB and 100 day MAs on the WTI, Brent and Heat – need closes over to unleash the market higher. Do not pre-empt.

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Posted by Robin Bieber