Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Both contracts are erratic and uncertain

Published Tuesday, May 12th, 2015

The close below the support area on Friday made the ICE contract look bearish whilst the rally on the same day on NYMEX suggested that resistances should come under pressure there. These views turned out to be unjustified as ICE completely reversed course and is bullish now whilst hopes for NYMEX bulls are hanging on by a thread.


June ICE: Not only the daily short-term M/As were settled over yesterday during the buying frenzy but also last week’s high, the range resistance and the upper end of the short-term trading range, too. The latter is 42.94. By the look of it the price action was bullish and last night’s close was a buy if anything. It is recommended now for new longs to take profit on part of their positions on a test of the 34-day M/A at around 43.48 and go completely flat when the 100-day contract M/A at 43.91 is in sight. A close over the higher of these resistances is a buy again as in that case the contract will be expected to jump to 45.00, the 34-day continuation M/A. Should the volatile nature of the contract persist and the price start to weaken long positons are to be protected on a close back below the 42.94 range support and below the 8 and 13-day M/As at around 42.41/37. Selling short is still recommended on a close below the 42.10/42.0 range support level. Whilst weaker numbers might occur the odds are currently on resistances to be tested.

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Posted by Tamas Varga

Tamas Varga has been in the oil industry since 1992 and with PVM for 18 years. During his time in the industry he has gathered a range of experience in the oil markets. At PVM Tamas is in charge of data collection and analysis.