Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Erratic action but more upside likely. Watch RBOB at 206.18 – a pivot.

Published Friday, May 15th, 2015

The contracts are not all singing from the same hymn sheet. Brent looks a bit vulnerable whilst RBOB is putting on value and testing resistances. This lack of harmony is likely to make for an erratic market and one where care is advised. Brent is the only contract below all the short term (s/t) MAs, whilst WTI is below the 5 and 8 but holding the 13, and the rest are above them all. This does not make for clarity. The most important resistance on the board is RBOB at 206.18, briefly breached but not closed above yesterday. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) above here would be bullish and keep the rest of the contracts relatively steady. The trend is up but a bit erratic. The odds are on re-gaining lost ground today on the crudes and the rest to be steady. The long term bullish view is maintained whilst the 8 month MAs hold on the crudes at 58.12 WTI and 64.68 Brent. WTI is below the 5 and 8 day MAs around 59.93 (8) and 60.04 (5), but above the 13 day around 59.70. The 13 needs to hold or we could easily see a dip back down to the 8 month MA at 58.12. The longer term bullish view is held whilst over 58.12.

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Posted by Robin Bieber