Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Key longer term support holding. Up-trend intact but damaged. Be patient.

Published Monday, May 11th, 2015

The contracts are vulnerable but holding key supports. They are all, with the exception of WTI, below the short term (s/t) MAs, and in Heat and Gasoil’s case not by very much. Heat’s 13 day is around 196.14 and Gasoil’s 598.50. Moves confirmed by closes (m/c) back over these would be a strong signal that the market is holding with upside. In addition some long term, infrequently used, key supports are holding – important 8 month MAs on WTI at 58.05 and on Brent at 64.51; the 5 week MAs on Heat at 194.02 and June Gasoil at 591.75; and range support on RBOB at 196.17. These supports are both supporting the market but more importantly keeping any targets lower on hold. The contracts also m/cd over their bull/bear pivots (“c”) and this is mildly constructive. The up-trend is still in a corrective phase – be careful. We need m/cs back over some of the s/t MAs to give any upside some credibility. WTI is above the 13 day MA around 58.78 and whilst above here is holding with recovery potential. A failure would suggest a re-test of the 8 month MA at 58.05, and this needs to hold or this contract heads lower.

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Posted by Robin Bieber