Technical & Fundamental Oil Reports Specialists

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Key longer term supports holding. Up-trend intact but damaged. Be patient.

Published Tuesday, May 12th, 2015

The technical picture has not changed much from yesterday. The support is becoming stronger, the downwards momentum seems to be lessening, and the stochastics have cooled off a bit. In short, the market is holding. The key remains the crucial supports that have been tested in most cases and held. These key pivotal supports are on WTI at 58.87 (13 day) then 58.05 (8 month MA); Brent 64.45 (8 month MA); Heat 193.80 (5 week MA); RBOB 196.17 (range); and Gasoil 587.75 (8 month MA). There are no targets lower whilst these hold and should they do so today the odds are that the contracts will change direction and move into resistance testing mode. WTI is the only contract above a short term (s/t) MA – the 13 around 58.87. It has tried, and failed, for two days in a row now to move over the 5 and 8 day MAs today around 59.55. A move confirmed by a close (m/c) over these would point to recovery and higher numbers. Meanwhile there are no targets lower whilst the 8 month MA at 58.05 holds. A m/c below here – unlikely – would be bearish. Brent has held the key 8 month MA at 64.45, albeit briefly penetrated yesterday, and has no target lower whilst over here. The next serious support is at 63.62 – the 200 month MA. It is below all the s/t MAs, where the lowest – the 5 and 13 day – are around 65.69/87. A m/c over here would point to recovery and tests of resistance.

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Posted by Robin Bieber