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PVM Midday Report 12 May 2015

Published Tuesday, May 12th, 2015


  1. Iraq announces plans for record crude exports from its southern ports in June
  2. Sources put Saudi oil production in April slightly up on March at 10.308 mbpd
  3. Reports of Saudi-led air strikes in Yemeni capital hours before start of truce
  4. OECD sees improving eurozone growth prospects, warns of slowdown in US and China


Fundamentals: Iraqi oil exports are on course to touch another historic high in June after Baghdad announced plans to ship a record 3.1 mbpd of crude from its southern terminals with exports of its new Basra Heavy crude far exceeding expectations at 1.22 mbpd. Sources have put Saudi oil output in April at a fresh high of 10.308 mpbd, a slight increase from the 10.29 mbpd recorded in March. Meanwhile, Saudi air strikes have been reported earlier today in the Yemeni capital just hours before a five-day humanitarian truce was due to begin.

Technicals: This morning has witnessed a very impressive rally, after long term support had held for two days. It is early days yet, and there is more to do to move back to the recent highs, but the bears should now be worried and cautious. The key is now what happens at the short term MAs. WTI has broken out above all the s/t MAs. It now needs to hold over the highest, the 5 around 59.66 to be looking for a leg higher to 61.23 area. Brent is at the highest s/t MA – the 8 – around 66.30 and needs a move and close over here to green light a leg up to 66.74 initially. Heat is at the highest s/t MA – the 8 – around 197.90, and needs a m/c over here to activate a move higher to 203.13. RBOB is above the highest s/t MA around 202.16 (8 day) and a m/c over here green lights a leg higher to 206. Gasoil is at the 8 day around 604.50 and needs a m/c over here to activate a move higher to 623.75. The stochastics are wavering, as one would expect. The up-trend is trying to kick back in, but the key now is what happens at the s/t MAs. They are strong – be careful.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.