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PVM Midday Report 15 May 2015

Published Friday, May 15th, 2015


  1. One cargo added to the North Sea Forties June loading programme
  2. Russian oil export duty seen climbing a hefty 24% m/m in June on rising crude prices
  3. Western supplies of fuel oil to Asia set to dip 5% m/m in June to 4.76 million tonnes
  4. UK construction output rebounds 3.9% in March from previous month, up 1.6% y/y


Fundamentals: The recent rise in crude oil prices is expected to lead to a hefty 24% jump in Russia’s oil export duty in June to $144.4/tonne from $116.5/tonne in May. One cargo of crude has been added to the North Sea Forties June loading programme which will raise planned liftings for the month by 20,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd. Meanwhile, shipments of fuel oil from the West to Asia are set to fall to a two-month low of 4.76 million tonnes in June, down 5% on May but 27% up from a year earlier on subdued European demand.

Technicals: The contracts are ebbing and flowing a bit this morning. However RBOB – a must watch contract – tried to move over the key c/p resistance at 206.18, breached it briefly, and has failed. This has put pressure on the rest. The crudes have slid below the s/t MAs, which is not good, but the products are still above. This is continuation of this morning’s lack of harmony. It’s advised to adopt a neutral policy and let the market decide around the s/t MAs.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.