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PVM Midday Report 29 May 2015

Published Friday, May 29th, 2015


  1. Iranian crude exports to Asia jump 12% in April to almost 1.2 mbpd
  2. Russian oil output may slip 0.3% this year from 2014 to 526.5 million tonnes
  3. ULSD exports from Russia’s Primorsk port to rise 3.8% in June to 1.240 million tonnes
  4. Oman crude July OSP to increase by $4.94 to $63.62/bbl according to Reuters calculations
  5. Greek bank deposits fall 4% last month to lowest in more than a decade


Fundamentals: Iranian crude exports to Asia surged 12% on the month in April to a four-month high of almost 1.2 mbpd although they are slightly down on the same period a year ago. Russian officials have revealed that production of crude oil could dip by 0.3% this year compared with 2014 to 526.4 million tonnes and potentially as low as 521 million tonnes by 2018 on falling output in West Siberia. Staying with Russia, exports of ULSD from the Baltic port of Primorsk are set rise by 3.8% in June to 1.24 million tonnes from 1.234 million tonnes in May. Meanwhile, the OSP for Oman crude is to increase by $4.94/bbl to $63.62/bbl in July according to Reuters calculations.

Technicals: The contracts held and rallied yesterday. There are no targets whilst these supports at – 57.93 WTI; 62.51 Brent; 186.49 Heat; 198.20 RBOB; and 566.75 Gasoil. The question is now what happens at the first hurdle – the 5 day MAs. The interesting point to this is that RBOB has, alone, moved over its 5 day, around 198.34, and if this is a habitual early warning then the rest could easily follow. In short watch RBOB carefully today. The 5 day MAs on the rest are around 58.26 WTI (currently breached); 63.42 Brent; 198.75 Heat; and 583.75 Gasoil. The stochastics are wavering but just turned positive on the crudes. The contracts are at important levels with much technically going on – tread carefully.

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Posted by Stephen Brennock

Stephen Brennock joined PVM in 2013 after having worked as a project manager for a business development firm. He graduated with a degree in Business Management in 2007.